Larry Headlund
7/5/2014 3:10:00 PM
On Friday, July 4, 2014 10:54:22 PM UTC-4, Alfred Montestruc wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 18, 2014 10:59:13 AM UTC-5, Bill wrote:
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> > On Wed, 18 Jun 2014 10:33:20 -0400, "Don Phillipson"
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> > <e925@SPAMBLOCK.ncf.ca> wrote:
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> > >) Had the wily Japanese merely descended
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> > >on the Netherlands Indies and British SE Asia (bypassing the
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> > >Phillippines and agreeing with Vichy France by negotiation) it is
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> > >hard to see why the USA should act against Japan, let alone
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> > >Germany as well. The Japanese Empire might then have lasted
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> > >much longer, and the British a bit less than it did: but this is no
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> > >case that the UK could alone "conquer" Germany.
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> > The Japanese really need a general European war in which the British
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> > are doing badly.
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> OTL until the USA entered WWII on the British side. Or did you forget the the Germans chased the British off the European mainland and defeated & occupied France?
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> > If the Germans come unglued at any point then any Japanese aggression
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> No the more accurate statement is if the USA decides to get involved in the fight, Japan is going to be in deep trouble.
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> The critical issue is keeping Roosevelt out of the fight.
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> Obligatory what if; the Japanese government hires a lot of US private investigators and dredges through the Roosevelt family's dirty laundry (and other figures in the FDR administration), , , and dumps all findings into the American press broadly in many newspapers at the same time with photographic evidence, say starting in 1936, and does not stop, till Roosevelt is out of office.
> That could keep him too busy to deal with foreign policy.
> Anyone reasonably knowledgeable of American history of the era should know that FDR, Elinor Roosevelt, and many of his cabinet officers were very vulnerable to that sort of attack, in the climate of that time.
A Japanese campaign against FDR beginning in 1936 requires
1. Japanese know they are going to be in a prolonged war in China. The Marco Polo Bridge Incident wasn't until July of 1937 and the Japanese could not know how long the war would be.
2. That FDR would be hostile to Japanese policy in China. The Panay incident which was the beginning of souring relations was in December 1937.
3. Expectations of an FDR third term. Nobody in 1936 was expecting this.
4. General European war making it possible for Japan to contemplate the kind of aggression which would make the US an active enemy.
5. Knowledge that an FDR replacement would not be hostile to Japanese interests. Even in the 1930s there was a Republican "China Lobby" with ties to China missionaries like Luce and Americans with business interests in China.
I don't think so.