Miodrag Smoljanovic Cvrcko
9/13/2008 10:38:00 AM
Miodrag Smoljanovic Cvrcko
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama may be playing possum.
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John McCain's campaign is boasting about a surge in fundraising
following his pick of running mate Sarah Palin, a swell of cash that
his campaign says has eroded the money advantage Obama once enjoyed.
The Illinois senator's campaign hasn't done much to refute the notion
its financial edge may be shrinking. So far, though, Obama's aides
privately say they're keeping a low profile so donors don't get
complacent, suggesting that August contributions -- to be disclosed
next week -- will top February's one-month record of $55 million. And
Palin, while energizing Republicans, has also motivated Democratic
donors.
Less than two months before Election Day, money raised from this point
comes on top of millions of dollars Obama has already spent to train
staff and open offices in competitive states -- building a more
extensive operation than McCain and Republicans have been able to put
together so far.
``This was always an election where we needed to significantly broaden
the battlefield and put in play a whole series of states that have not
been competitive,'' said former Democratic National Committee Chairman
Steve Grossman, who is raising money for Obama, 47. ``That takes a lot
of money. I have no doubt we'll be able to implement that plan.''
Obama may yet face fundraising challenges. Unlike McCain, 72, the
Democrat spurned federal campaign financing and is banking on money
from supporters. Attracting contributions may get tougher if the
Republican Arizona senator's poll numbers keep strengthening.
Victory Prospects
``Contributions follow prospects of victory,'' said Costas
Panagopoulos, director of Fordham University's Center for Electoral
Politics and Democracy in the Bronx. ``If the prospects diminish, so
will some of his contributions.''
By the same token, Republicans may rake in more than expected if
McCain holds onto his bounce in the polls since the Republican
National Convention.
``Folks are much more inclined to invest when they think there is
going to be a payoff,'' former Republican National Committee deputy
chairman Eddie Mahe said.
McCain's campaign organization is limited to $84.1 million in public
financing. Obama isn't subject to spending restrictions after becoming
the first major-party nominee to refuse public funding.
Obama raised more than double McCain's haul before the nominating
conventions, $390 million to $160 million, and spent some of that
money hiring workers and setting up get-out-the-vote operations.
On-The-Ground Organization
``The story of the Democratic primary was a superior on-the- ground
Obama organization,'' said Rogan Kersh, associate dean of New York
University's Wagner School of Public Service. ``This fundraising
differential may mean we see that movie sequel in November.''
In June and July, Obama spent $5 million on staff; McCain spent $2.8
million, Federal Election Commission reports show. Last week, Obama
opened 35 new offices in Pennsylvania, the campaign announced. Obama
is also competing in states such as Virginia and North Carolina that
in recent elections haven't been hospitable to Democratic presidential
nominees. There are 27 offices in Virginia, for example, according to
his Web site.
That means McCain and the RNC during the two-month sprint to Nov. 4
will be spending part of their budget matching expenditures Obama has
already made. This week, McCain and the RNC began adding campaign
staff, with an eye toward doubling the size of the party's ground
operation in 14 states.
Party Assistance
In the money contest, McCain is getting help from the national
Republican Party, which has so far taken in $100 million more than the
Democratic National Committee to help promote its ticket.
In mid-June, Obama set a goal of raising a combined $450 million for
his campaign and the DNC by Election Day. Reaching that target
requires an unprecedented average of $100 million per month. Democrats
didn't hit the mark in July, when Obama drew $51 million and the DNC
got $27 million.
Both parties now say they're on a pace to meet the mid- summer
fundraising targets -- which would give Obama and the Democratic Party
about a $100 million spending advantage.
Time for Fundraising
Even so, Obama has to take time away from competing for votes to raise
the private contributions his campaign needs. He spent Sept. 5 at two
New Jersey events, including one at the home of musician Jon Bon Jovi
where donors gave $30,800. On Sept. 16, he's scheduled for a $2,500-
per-person Beverly Hills, California, fundraiser and concert featuring
Barbra Streisand.
``It's a huge advantage when you're not so heavily encumbered by
fundraising,'' said former Representative Jim Davis, a Florida
Democrat. ``But Senator Obama has found the balance between the time
he spends getting to know people and funding his campaign.''
Obama has also gone back to his small donors -- 49 percent of his
contributors through July 31 gave $200 or less. That means the
Democratic nominee has millions of financial supporters who can donate
again without exceeding federal contribution limits.
His campaign raised $10 million on Sept. 4, the day after Palin
addressed the Republican nominating convention, for its biggest one-
day haul of the campaign.
``We had a terrific summer,'' said Obama's campaign manager, David
Plouffe. ``We always knew the Republicans would do well financially.
They always do. Our imperative is to just make sure that we raise what
we need to execute our plan.''
McCain raised $50 million last month, campaign manager Rick Davis
said, including $10 million after Palin was picked. ``Basically what
we've done is take money out of the equation,'' Davis said.