h.infectious
9/2/2008 6:12:00 PM
On Sep 2, 1:56 pm, yuma400...@yahoo.com wrote:
> Milenko Kindl
>
> Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls
> appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and
> it's gradually depreciating.
> ADVERTISEMENT
>
> The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that since the conclusion of
> the convention, Obama has risen 4 percentage points in the polls, to
> lead McCain 49 percent to 43 percent today. That's a slightly smaller
> uptick in the polls than the 5- to 6-point bounce earned by a typical
> party nominee, by Gallup’s measure, since 1964. Obama and McCain were
> evenly split at 45 percentage points apiece prior to the Democratic
> convention, according to Gallup.
>
> That outcome comes despite Obama’s speech before more than 80,000
> people at Invesco Field in Denver on Thursday night, a political event
> that was also seen by about 40 million television viewers. It also
> comes as the Republican convention quietly got under way in St. Paul,
> and the national media gaze focuses southward to Hurricane Gustav.
>
> Daily tracking polls by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports demonstrate that
> Obama has taken his greatest lead since July, if not the general
> election. But while Obama’s support remains significantly stronger
> than weeks ago, it appears that the post-convention bounce he earned
> may have already peaked.
>
> On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points.
> By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s
> standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46
> percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but
> statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage
> point since Saturday.
>
> CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40
> percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll
> prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds
> that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who
> did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce
> is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton
> received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican
> convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than
> Obama.
>
> But any Obama bounce, if it is sustained, could be said to be a
> victory for Democrats. In the days since Obama gave his address, the
> news cycles have been captured by the unveiling of Alaska Gov. Sarah
> Palin as John McCain's running mate, the opening of the Republican
> convention and the threat posed by Hurricane Gustav.
>
> There have been only three previous back-to-back conventions, most
> recently in 1956. The effect of the GOP convention on the polls will
> not be known for days.
>
> A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll,
> both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is
> in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no
> statistically significant convention bounce.
>
> Whether Obama is ahead or tied with McCain, the presumptive Republican
> nominee will now come into the Republican convention with his best
> opportunity yet to break through his own ceiling and take a lead in
> the presidential race.
>
> Milenko Kindl
> Banja Luka
> Banjaluka