matt.orel
8/13/2008 12:22:00 AM
On Aug 12, 9:15 am, SMBalloon <smball...@aol.com> wrote:
> On Mon, 11 Aug 2008 20:49:21 -0700 (PDT), matt.o...@gmail.com wrote:
> >Or, even more direct: There is no evidence from the data presented
> >that Google has taken any position at all to its employees. I thought
> >the whole "correlation = causation" argument generally gets disposed
> >of in the first day of logic study; not, apparently, for Balloon.
>
> We're talking 98%, not 80% or 75% of a decent sized domain. The only
> way I think that is mathematically plausible is if Google either
> deliberately tries to avoid hiring Republican supporters, of if there
> is an implied or explicit company desire for its employees to either
> support Democrats or not support Republicans.
Is that what passes for logic in balloon-land? Or is the above
balloon-speak for "Balloon's got nuthin'"?
First, let's do a sanity check: The figures were of known donations
for the *2004* election cycle. Google had been public all of 3 months
at the time of the election, it was a relatively small company, and
its total donation amount barely cleared 200k. The article doesn't
even state how many donors were involved; we're probably looking at
less than a thousand -- and they're probably among the first hires.
So, no, it's not a particularly decent sized domain; it's tiny.
Next, you show a profound lack of understanding of Google. Really,
rather comical on several levels.
Then, you compare this to documentary evidence of an employer trying
to coerce its employees in to voting a certain way! That's precious.
Where's your corresponding evidence for Google, or anyone else?
The rest of your post is, frankly, too logically bizarre for much in
the way of serious response.
I will note two things: 1) If you find that 98% of Google's 2008
money is going to Cynthia McKinney, I'll give you a mulligan on a
"correlation=causation" charge. 2) We're not talking coin flips here.
>
> Let's reverse the scenario. Let's say that 98% of Walmart employee
> contributions went to Republicans and only 2% to Democrats. Would you
> not consider that mathematically conclusive proof that Walmart either
> tired to avoid hiring Democrats or that Walmart was either implicitly
> or explicitly making it clear to their employees that they should
> support Republicans and not Democrats?
>
> As well, you relied on similar type mathematical reasoning to know
> beyond any doubt that thousands of people in Jewish parts of Palm
> Beach County really didn't intend to vote for Pat Buchanan back in
> 2000. You had no problem engaging in the "correlation = causation"
> argument back then. And that's because the numbers were so
> overwhelmingly supportive of that. If someone accused you of engaging
> in "logical fallacy" regarding that, you would have laughed.
>
> I guess it's mathematically possible to flip a coin 25 times and have
> it come out heads 24 times. But it's not mathematically plausible
> that this would happen unless something else was at play. And when
> you get 98% of the contributions of employees of a sizable company
> going to Democrats, then it's far more reasonable to think there is
> something at play besides Google just having highly educated and
> highly informed employees who of course would never vote for a
> Republican.