ahall
12/11/2010 4:20:00 PM
Rick Saunders <retro_lad@yahoo.com> writes:
> On Dec 8, 7:58?pm, <ah...@no-spam-panix.com> wrote:
>> Rick Saunders <retro_...@yahoo.com> writes:
>> > On Dec 8, 2:18 am, Ernst Blofeld <blofel...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>> >> On Dec 7, 8:16 pm, <ah...@no-spam-panix.com> wrote:
>>
>> >> > Most models break down when having to extrapolate too far.
>>
>> >> And the climate models are doing quite a lot of extrapolation.
>>
>> >> > The real trends are right in line with the bulk of the models.
>>
>> >> Creating a model to predict the past is easy. Polynomial fit, power
>> >> N-1, knock off early for a beer.
>>
>> >> Creating models that predict what will happen outside your historical
>> >> data set is a different matter. And the performance of the climate
>> >> models in that mode is deeply unimpressive.
>>
>> > In fact, I'm unaware of any climate models that can accurately
>> > 'predict'
>> > the weather of the past several years.... or months.
>>
>> Nothing will ever accurately predict weather more than a few days out,
>> and then only with the most optimal weather condtions.
>
> And you're not bothered by the fact that climate prediction
> models are no better? Well, okay then!
You are displaying profound ignorance of modern mathematics.
--
Andrew Hall
(Now reading Usenet in alt.fan.dan-quayle...)
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