amia9018
3/5/2012 6:32:00 PM
On Monday 05 March 2012 00:31, john0714 (john0714@aol.com) opined:
<snip>
> Could we get off the "how" and back to the "what-if?" IMHO Maher, as
> big a I am fan of his, is all wrong on this. I wanted to put the
> question to you all simply in the form of a simple thought experiment
> to get some intelligent liberals and farther leftists, which I suppose
> most of you are, to cogently discuss the yeas and nays of my premise.
> Instead you are hanging me up with "how."Can't you just go with it?
> PLEASE!!!
I'd humbly submit that the "how" to which you object is an essential part
of the "what-if", especially in questions involving politics. There must
first be a realistic path for Al Gore to have become the Democrat nominee
in 2008, just as there must be one for Condi Rice. In determining
that/those paths, there must be some discussion of HOW the individuals in
question reached that point.
Personally, I don't see Gore becoming the Dem nominee under any
circumstance after losing in 2000 and not being nominated in 2004, which
would, in my opinion, have represented his best opportunity. While there
was name recognition in '08, that was largely because of his activities in
the global warming "discussion" and not for his continued participation in
national politics. As for Rice, she removed herself from consideration
OTL and I frankly don't see her changing her position ATL. I think she is
smart enough to realize the hurdles she'd face, even if she were
interested, and I certainly don't believe the GOP would've nominated her
against her wishes.
Assuming a matchup such as you suggest, I think it likely that those groups
that "traditionally" vote for either party would, in large part, continue
with that pattern of behavior: the black vote would be about 90%
Democrat, with a few crossing party lines to vote for Rice because she's
black, a few conservative southern whites voting against her because she's
black AND female, and so on. The net result would be, as we see in OTL,
that the 20% or so "independents" would control the outcome of the
election.
That independent group is hard to characterize, IMO, because it consists
not only of the genuinely non-aligned but of the late deciders and the
uninformed, as well. The non-aligned would, I suggest, base their vote
more on the party platforms as expressed by the candidates than on issues
of race and gender, while the latter groups would be more inclined to do
the opposite or vote on the basis of personality and individual charisma
than on any basis of policy/platform. The result would be, I think, a
close race. I'd like to think Rice would win, but don't know whether
that's my dislike for Gore speaking.
Swell Ol' Bob
--
Robert G. Melson | Rio Grande MicroSolutions | El Paso, Texas
-----
The greatest tyrannies are always perpetrated
in the name of the noblest causes -- Thomas Paine