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Probability is safe !

Ramine

3/22/2015 12:32:00 AM


Hello,

I wrote:
> because you will say that a probability 1/1000000000 means
> that we have to wait a long time for the event to appear, but
> what i am trying to explain is that the notion of time do not
> exist , because when you start playing it is also like you are
> playing for a long time or for a short time, so this can make this
> probability of 1/1000000000 to vanish at any moment and this can >
make the event to appear at any moment"


I think i have understood what is not correct in my reasoning...


The notion of time doesn't exist, but the "probability" that the time
is inside the long interval of time of the probability of 1/1000000000
is maintained, so it is like we are saying that my affirmation: "because
the event can appear at ANY MOMENT" is also very improbable.


So as you have noticed i am good also at reasonning and this makes the
fondation of probability safe !




Thank you,
Amine Moulay Ramdane.
2 Answers

Ramine

3/22/2015 1:14:00 AM

0


Hello,

I want to be more precise:

I wrote:
>The notion of time doesn't exist, but the "probability" that
>the time is inside the long interval of time of the probability
>of 1/1000000000 is maintained, so it is like we are saying that my
>affirmation: "because the event can appear at ANY MOMENT" is also
> very improbable.


I mean when you start playing each time the probability of
1/1000000000, you can not say if you are playing for a long time or a
short time, it is like if the variable of "time" doesn't exist, this
is what i mean, but the "probability" that the time is inside the long
interval of time of the probability of 1/1000000000 is maintained, so it
is like we are saying that my affirmation: "because the event can
appear at ANY MOMENT" is also very improbable.




Thank you,
Amine Moulay Ramdane.

Richard Heathfield

3/22/2015 1:05:00 PM

0

On 22/03/15 00:32, Ramine wrote:
>
<snip>

> So as you have noticed i am good also at reasonning

Again, you need to provide some evidence of this. So far, this has been
sadly lacking.


> and this makes the
> fondation of probability safe !

No, the foundation of probability is safe for other reasons. It does not
depend on your ability, or otherwise, to understand it.

--
Richard Heathfield
Email: rjh at cpax dot org dot uk
"Usenet is a strange place" - dmr 29 July 1999
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