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About mathematics of probability...

Ramine

3/22/2015 12:16:00 AM


Hello,

I have come to an interresting subject, i was thinking and thinking more..

As i said before , in mathematics of probability we say that if an event
have a probability 1/1000000000 to appear that means that the event is
very improbable to appear , but what i want to exaplin is that
this is not a proof that it will not appear, because the event
can appear at ANY MOMENT and this is what also i want to explain,
now if you respond to me that what i have just said: "because the event
can appear at ANY MOMENT" is also very improbable, you are making a
mistake, because you are including the variable of "time" inside
the equation, but when you start to play with the probability above
the notion of time is like it doesn't exist, because you will say
that a probability 1/1000000000 means that we have to wait a long
time for the event to appear, but what i am trying to explain is that
the notion of time do not exist , because when you start playing
it is also like you are playing for a long time or for a short time, so
this can make this probability of 1/1000000000 to vanish at any moment
and this can make the event to appear at any moment, so as you have
noticed that in this post i don't agree with the fondation that is the
interpretation of probability.



Thank you,
Amine Moulay Ramdane.



















6 Answers

Ramine

3/22/2015 12:31:00 AM

0


Hello,

I wrote:
> because you will say that a probability 1/1000000000 means
> that we have to wait a long time for the event to appear, but
> what i am trying to explain is that the notion of time do not
> exist , because when you start playing it is also like you are
> playing for a long time or for a short time, so this can make this
> probability of 1/1000000000 to vanish at any moment and this can >
make the event to appear at any moment"


I think i have unerstood what is not correct in my reasoning...


The notion of time doesn't exist, but the "probability" that the time
is inside the long interval of time of the probability of 1/1000000000
is maintained, so it is like we are saying that my affirmation: "because
the event can appear at ANY MOMENT" is also very improbable.


So as you have noticed i am good also at reasonning and this makes the
fondation of probability safe !




Thank you,
Amine Moulay Ramdane.






On 3/21/2015 5:16 PM, Ramine wrote:
>
> Hello,
>
> I have come to an interresting subject, i was thinking and thinking more..
>
> As i said before , in mathematics of probability we say that if an event
> have a probability 1/1000000000 to appear that means that the event is
> very improbable to appear , but what i want to exaplin is that
> this is not a proof that it will not appear, because the event
> can appear at ANY MOMENT and this is what also i want to explain,
> now if you respond to me that what i have just said: "because the event
> can appear at ANY MOMENT" is also very improbable, you are making a
> mistake, because you are including the variable of "time" inside
> the equation, but when you start to play with the probability above
> the notion of time is like it doesn't exist, because you will say
> that a probability 1/1000000000 means that we have to wait a long
> time for the event to appear, but what i am trying to explain is that
> the notion of time do not exist , because when you start playing
> it is also like you are playing for a long time or for a short time, so
> this can make this probability of 1/1000000000 to vanish at any moment
> and this can make the event to appear at any moment, so as you have
> noticed that in this post i don't agree with the fondation that is the
> interpretation of probability.
>
>
>
> Thank you,
> Amine Moulay Ramdane.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>

Richard Heathfield

3/22/2015 1:02:00 PM

0

On 22/03/15 00:16, Ramine wrote:
>
> Hello,
>
> I have come to an interresting subject,

Not to most of us.


> i was thinking and thinking more..

You say this quite often, but it might be useful for you to provide some
evidence to support the claim.

> As i said before , in mathematics of probability we say that if an event
> have a probability 1/1000000000 to appear that means that the event is
> very improbable to appear , but what i want to exaplin is that
> this is not a proof that it will not appear,

Everybody else already knows this. What makes you think we don't?

<snip>

--
Richard Heathfield
Email: rjh at cpax dot org dot uk
"Usenet is a strange place" - dmr 29 July 1999
Sig line 4 vacant - apply within

Quilljar

3/22/2015 1:42:00 PM

0

"Richard Heathfield" wrote:
> On 22/03/15 00:16, Ramine wrote:
>> I have come to an interresting subject,
>
> Not to most of us.

What's interesting is that I haven't seen a Ramine post in weeks and
yet I'm not filtering them. Previously I just deleted them unread but
now a news provider is dropping them. Perhaps it's aioe, from where
I'm posting.


Bill Cunningham

3/24/2015

0


"Ant" <not@home.today> wrote in message
news:memgre$bv8$1@speranza.aioe.org...

> What's interesting is that I haven't seen a Ramine post in weeks and
> yet I'm not filtering them. Previously I just deleted them unread but
> now a news provider is dropping them. Perhaps it's aioe, from where
> I'm posting.

I have been having trouble with aioe.org lately. I doesn't want to show
my posts and doesn't let me post. Anyone else have this problem? I don't
think alt.math would like this post either.

Bill


Quilljar

3/24/2015 10:40:00 AM

0

"Bill Cunningham" wrote:
> I have been having trouble with aioe.org lately. I doesn't want to show
> my posts and doesn't let me post

I see you're now using Eternal September.
Just so you know; the post does show on aioe.


Bill Cunningham

3/24/2015 6:56:00 PM

0


"Ant" <not@home.today> wrote in message
news:merf0o$58l$1@speranza.aioe.org...

> I see you're now using Eternal September.
> Just so you know; the post does show on aioe.

For some reason it doesn't show up on my client. Not my posts. And for
awhile I wasn't able to post. Not through nntp:aioe.org. But could
eternal-september.org

Bill