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outsource mobile application development in Saudi arabia

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Gary Sokolisch

11/27/2011 11:28:00 PM

On 27 Nov 2011 22:29:21 GMT, Ray Fischer wrote:







The history of America???s recessions is provided at the website of the
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Before this last recession,
since the Great Depression recessions in America have lasted an average of
10 months, with the longest previously lasting 16 months. Yet here we are
47 months after the last recession started, and we still have no real
recovery.

Instead, unemployment has been stuck at 9% or above for the longest period
since the Great Depression. Unemployment for blacks has remained over 15%
for over 2 years, with Hispanic unemployment stuck well into double digits
over that time as well. Teenage unemployment has persisted at nearly 25%,
with black teenage unemployment still nearly 40%.

The U6 unemployment rate, reflecting all of the unemployed still wanting
work and the underemployed who can???t get full time work, is still 16.2%.
That includes an army of the unemployed or underemployed of over 26 million
Americans. And that still doesn???t fully count the millions of Americans
who have given up and dropped out of the work force altogether.

On September 13 came the Census Bureau report fleshing out the full meaning
of no economic recovery under Obama. Median family income has fallen all
the way back to 1996 levels. The Wall Street Journal further reported on
September 14, ???Earnings of the typical man who works full time year round
fell, and are lower???adjusted for inflation???than in 1978.???

The poverty rate climbed to 15.1%, higher than in the late 1960s when the
War on Poverty was getting underway, $16 trillion ago. The child poverty
rate climbed to 22%, nearly a quarter of all American children. The total
number of Americans in poverty is higher than at any time in the over 50
years that the Census Bureau has been tallying it. Moreover, the number of
Americans ages 25-34 living with their parents has soared by 25%.

Yes, I know NBER declared the recession technically over in June, 2009,
still the longest recession on record since the Depression. But the point
is next month will be 4 years since the recession started, and there is
still no sustained real recovery. Or as economist John Lott has
emphasized, Obamanomics has produced the worst recovery since the Great
Depression.

Obama apologists can???t continue to blame the depths of the previous
recession, and they can???t because the historical record makes plain that
the worse the recession, the stronger the recovery. Based on that
historical record, we should be completing the second year of a booming
economy by now.

In the second year of the Reagan recovery, real economic growth boomed by
6.8%, the highest in 50 years. In the first two years of that recovery,
7.6 million new jobs were created, on the way to 20 million jobs created
during the first 7 years. Presently, we are still 6 million jobs below the
peak before the last recession, four years ago.

The chief excuse of the Obama apologists is ???this time is different,???
citing the book of that title, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of
Financial Folly, by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. But the theme
of that book is exactly the opposite of what it is cited for here ??? that
???this time is different??? is never true.

The apologists cite the book to argue that what we have suffered this time
was not just a recession, but a financial crisis, and the data in the book
shows, they argue, that recovery from a financial crisis takes a lot longer
than recovery from a recession.

But that is not the experience of the American, free market, capitalist
economy. The experience of the American economy is reported in full at the
National Bureau of Economic Research, as cited above ??? recessions since the
Great Depression previously have lasted an average of 10 months, with the
longest previously 16 months, and the deeper the recession the stronger the
recovery. That is the standard by which the performance of Obamanomics is
to be judged. Which of those American recessions were a ???financial crisis???
that breaks the pattern?

The data discussed in the book, by contrast, ???covers sixty-six countries
over nearly eight centuries.??? It ???goes back as far as twelfth century
China and medieval Europe.??? The data ???come from Africa, Asia, Europe,
Latin America, North America, and Oceania.??? The experience from 12th
century China, medieval Europe, spendthrift demagogues and socialist
economies from Latin America, Europe, Africa and Asia, do not set the
standard of expectations for post depression, free market, capitalist
America over the last 70 years, the most powerful economic engine in the
history of the world.

The data in the book is marshaled instead to explain the fundamental
principles common to the data, and why, in fact, ???this time is different???
is actually always wrong. Seizing upon the data in the book to try to give
some sort of pass to Obamanomics for failing the economic performance
standards of American history is just political propaganda.

Moreover, the concept of a recession is well-defined. It is two
consecutive quarters or more of negative GDP growth. By that standard, we
can rigorously define when a recession starts and when it ends. But trying
to label a recession as a ???financial crisis,??? for the purposes of giving
policymakers a free pass on their performance, is not similarly so
well-defined. Again, which of the postdepression recessions in America was
a ???financial crisis??? that shows a break in the pattern?

The only previous American economic performance, at least within the last
100 years, that begins to look like the results of Obamanomics is the
1930s, which makes sense because that is when America followed similar
policies to Obamanomics. That is when Obama???s unreconstructed, na??ve, Rip
Van Winkle, Keynesian economics first arose. It failed then for the same
obvious reasons it has failed now.

Increasing government spending, deficits and debt does not promote economic
growth and prosperity, as Obama and ineducable Democrats to this day
believe. What promotes economic growth and prosperity is incentives for
increased production, as Reaganomics proved 30 years ago for anyone
sentient who was paying attention.

Moreover, as I argue in my new publication, Obama and the Crash of 2013,
unless the policies of Obamanomics are changed, the result will be another
severe recession in 2013 that will make the results overall of the Obama
years look similar to the 1930s. That should not be a surprise, because
Obama is modeling his Administration and its policies and political
strategies on the Franklin Roosevelt years.

Most people do not know that already enacted in current law for 2013 are
increases in the top tax rates of virtually every major federal tax. That
is because the tax increases of Obamacare become effective that year, and
the Bush tax cuts expire, which Obama has refused to renew for the nation???s
small businesses, job creators and investors.

As a result, if the Bush tax cuts expire just for singles making over
$200,000 per year, and couples making over $250,000, in 2013 the top two
income tax rates will jump nearly 20%, the capital gains tax rate will soar
by nearly 60%, the tax on corporate dividends will nearly triple, and the
Medicare payroll tax will leap by 62% for those disfavored taxpayers.

This is on top of the U.S. corporate income tax rate, which is virtually
the highest in the industrialized world. Yet under President Obama there
is no relief in sight. Instead he continually proposes still further tax
increases on American business. Indeed, President Obama is already
campaigning all over America for still further tax increases, on top if his
2013 increases.

In addition, the blizzard of new regulatory costs and barriers imposed by
the Obama Administration will be building to a crescendo by 2013 as well.
The EPA is effectively imposing cap and trade by administrative regulation
under the Clean Air Act, without Congressional approval. EPA is joining
with the Interior Department to leash the private sector from traditional
American energy production. The new regulatory burdens from Dodd-Frank are
scheduled to flow, as are the regulatory burdens of Obamacare, including
the employer mandate, which is already massacring jobs.

Then there is the Fed and the effects of its monetary policy. When the Fed
follows a typical pattern of cutting off its monetary crack right after the
election to forestall inflation, that will be contractionary as well.

Art Laffer predicted the Coming Crash of 2011 on the basis of the
expiration of the Bush tax cuts on the upper income earners alone. Those
tax rate increases were extended to 2013 in December, 2010 out of fear that
prediction was right. But now, in 2013. in addition to those tax rate
increases, we have all of the tax increases of Obamacare, the further
exploding costs of Obama???s building regulatory blizzard, and the
contractionary effect of the Fed???s monetary policies, all at the same time.

Unless we reverse course, the result will be one big, bad crash in 2013,
quite analogous to the double dip of 1937.

























> Gary Sokolisch <SokolischSpeaks@moonbat.com> wrote:
>>Absence of a refuttaion noted:
>
> Insane refusal to cope with reality noted.
>
>>The history of America?^@^Ys recessions is provided at the website of the
>>National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Before this last recession,
>>since the Great Depression recessions in America have lasted an average of
>>10 months, with the longest previously lasting 16 months. Yet here we are
>>47 months after the last recession started, and we still have no real
>>recovery.
>
> The latest recession ended two and a half years ago, asshole. Why do you keep
> lying?

'

Gary Sokolisch

11/27/2011 11:32:00 PM

On 27 Nov 2011 22:29:21 GMT, Ray Fischer wrote:











Business is not just big companies. Smaller companies dominate America.
Entrepreneurs create almost all the new jobs.

Yet small businesses have gotten little access or attention in this White
House. The White House appears oblivious to the psychological impact of GE
heading the committee that advises the president on how to create jobs. GE
is so big and reliant on government contracts that its problems and
challenges are not shared by most American businesses.

Moreover, the federal government is hurting business and job creation as it
increases the regulatory burden.

Making a payroll means dealing with new taxes, health care mandates and the
cost of new regulations. To compensate for the added burden, businesses
must hire scores of accountants and lawyers to decipher and follow all the
new rules. Washington has shifted from occasionally helpful to downright
destructive of business interests.

Anti-business actions, proposals and rhetoric make it worse. Frequent talk
of ?spreading the wealth around,? ?corporate greed? and new tax proposals
all discourage investment and job creation.

Closing Boeing?s new South Carolina factory, raiding Gibson Guitars for
violating an ambiguous law in another country, and changing unionization
rules to allow sudden union formation all force companies to invest and
hire overseas. Encouraging hostility to business by embracing the Occupy
Wall Street protesters only makes matters worse.

Results must match rhetoric. President Obama excited the business community
when he promised to double exports in five years. Yet it took almost three
years to simply get three Bush-era trade deals signed and no other deals
have been made to promote exports and trade.

Nothing has been done on repatriation of corporate profits, lowering our
absurdly high corporate taxes or shifting our educational system to train
Americans for the 3.4 million jobs that are open. While college-educated,
liberal arts majors protest in American cities, jobs for engineers,
technicians and skilled machine operators go unfilled.

President Obama and his advisors have scant business, managerial or
leadership experience. The president has relied on personality and oratory
and the Democrats in Congress to lead. He created a Deficit Reduction
Commission and ignored its bipartisan recommendations, which led directly
to a Congressional stalemate over our debt ceiling. Obama also blew off
Rep. Paul Ryan?s good faith effort to address skyrocketing Medicare costs
and tried to make it an election issue.

It might be a big mystery to the president and his advisers why business
spurns their advances. But it isn?t a mystery to anyone in business.
Businesses are not hiring and this anti-business government is at least
partially responsible.

___________


Keynes believed in government spending when the economy is slow, but only
when paired with saving and paying down debt when the economy is moving
along well. From what I have read, it appears that Mr. Keynes would have
shuddered at the magnitude of the current U.S. debt, and he would not have
looked favorably on spending at this time. But regardless of what Mr.
Keynes would have thought, these times are different from Keynes's world of
the 1930s, when our economic machine was blessed with a young, hungry work
force that expected nothing from government and gave everything in return.
Additionally, there was a world awaiting American products and ingenuity.
Not so today. We aren't competitive in areas we used to dominate. To be
sure, we can become more competitive and take strides to correct our
course, and we should. But to spend more without correcting our problems
is simply a waste of money.

How do we correct our lack of competitiveness? Relaxing regulations would
be a great place to start. Regaining a productive attitude from our
population is also a must.

How do we get the productive attitude going again? Quit coddling everyone.
Demand a return to John Kennedy's famous request: "Ask not what your
country can do for you -- ask what you can do for your country." Heck, I'd
be satisfied if people would just expect to take care of themselves, and be
proud of it.

Last but not least, we need to get our energy policies straightened out.
Build the pipeline, drill offshore, encourage nuclear and coal production.

With those policies in place, we can afford -- even encourage -- a
stimulus, because then we have something to jump-start. In fact, after the
engine turns over, stay out of the way or get run over.

Until then, forget the stimulus. It's simply a waste of money, and delays
the inevitable. And when the inevitable gets here, it's a bigger hole to
dig out of.



> Gary Sokolisch <SokolischSpeaks@moonbat.com> wrote:
>>Absence of a refuttaion noted:
>
> Insane refusal to cope with reality noted.
>
>>The history of America?^@^Ys recessions is provided at the website of the
>>National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Before this last recession,
>>since the Great Depression recessions in America have lasted an average of
>>10 months, with the longest previously lasting 16 months. Yet here we are
>>47 months after the last recession started, and we still have no real
>>recovery.
>
> The latest recession ended two and a half years ago, asshole. Why do you keep
> lying?

'

Gary Sokolisch

11/27/2011 11:36:00 PM

On 27 Nov 2011 22:29:21 GMT, Ray Fischer wrote:


Bush's unemployment 4.4% - 6.6%

Odumbo's 10.1% and 9.7%

Bush'e highest deficit 458.6 billion (2008)

Odumbo's 1.41 trillion in 2009 and 1.29 trillion in 2010


> Gary Sokolisch <SokolischSpeaks@moonbat.com> wrote:
>>Absence of a refuttaion noted:
>
> Insane refusal to cope with reality noted.
>
>>The history of America?^@^Ys recessions is provided at the website of the
>>National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Before this last recession,
>>since the Great Depression recessions in America have lasted an average of
>>10 months, with the longest previously lasting 16 months. Yet here we are
>>47 months after the last recession started, and we still have no real
>>recovery.
>
> The latest recession ended two and a half years ago, asshole. Why do you keep
> lying?

;;;

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