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quark

6/6/2010 8:57:00 AM

On Jun 6, 1:22 am, "Forte" <fo...@virgin.net> wrote:
> "quark" <quark...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>
> news:4eb366ff-939f-4729-8e40-3e0c94dda63c@q39g2000prh.googlegroups.com...
> On Jun 5, 11:20 pm, "MacCorkindale" <maccorkind...@uni.net> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > Euro 'will be dead in five years'
>
> > The euro will have broken up before the end of this Parliamentary term,
> > according to the bulk of economists taking part in a wide-ranging economic
> > survey for The Sunday Telegraph.
> > The survey's findings underline suspicions that the new Chancellor, George
> > Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest
> > trading partner in his first years in office The single currency is in its
> > death throes and may not survive in its current membership for a week, let
> > alone the next five years, according to a selection of responses to the
> > survey - the first major wide-ranging litmus test of economic opinion in
> > the
> > City since the election. The findings underline suspicions that the new
> > Chancellor, George Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in
> > Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office.
>
> > Of the 25 leading City economists who took part in the Telegraph survey,
> > 12
> > predicted that the euro would not survive in its current form this
> > Parliamentary term, compared with eight who suspected it would. Five
> > declared themselves undecided. The finding is only one of a number of
> > remarkable conclusions, including that:
>
> > David Cameron: On Woolworths, the economy and Broken Britain
> > . The economy will grow by well over a percentage point less next year
> > than
> > the Budget predicted in March.
> > . The Government will borrow almost 10bn less next year than the Treasury
> > previously forecast, despite this weaker growth.
> > . Just as many economists think the Bank of England will not raise rates
> > until 2012 or later as think it will lift borrowing costs this year.
>
> > But the conclusion on the euro is perhaps the most remarkable finding. A
> > year ago or less, few within the City would have confidently predicted the
> > currency's demise. But the travails of Greece, Spain and Portugal in
> > recent
> > weeks, plus German Chancellor Angela Merkel's acknowledgement that the
> > currency is facing an "existential crisis", have radically shifted
> > opinion.
>
> >http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/780......
> > Bardzo dobrze oslabienie euro bylo przewidziane przez elliottistow.
>
> > Elliottisci nie przewiduja nieskonczonego wzrostu wartosci dolara
> > wobec euro.
>
> > Tlum zwykle nie ma racji -- zwykle usiluje tlum dokonac prognozy na
> > zasadzie ekstrapolacji liniowej stanu obecnego w przyszlosc.
> > To nigdy nie dziala na dluzsza mete.
>
> > Natomiast sama strefa euro Eurozone moze zostac oslabiona wypadnieciem
> > niektorych najslabszych jej czlonkow.
>
> > Euro zostalo oslabione w piatek i wszystko wskazuje na to, ze
> > najblizsze 2 tygodnie nie beda dobre dla euro -- jak i rynkow w ogole.
>
> > s.
>
> ============
> "Natomiast sama strefa euro Eurozone moze zostac oslabiona wypadnieciem
> niektorych najslabszych jej czlonkow."
> ===========
> "Logicznie" - jak byp. Kleczkowski powiedzial,  odejscie  "slabeluszy"
> powinno wzmocnic strefe uero.  Inna sprawa moze byc tez  to, ze
> do "sterfy euro" z problemami  nie bedzie  nowych chetnych do
> dolaczenia. A nieprzyjmowanie "slabeluszy" do strefy euro  tez
> moze miec pozytywny skutek.- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

To jest troche bardziej skomplikowane.
Analiza odbywa sie w oparciu o "price pattern".
Obecnie dobijamy do konca ruchu w gore w dolarze wobec euro.
Nastepna powinna byc korekcja ceny dolara w dol przed ponownym ruchem
w gore.

Z tego co widac na wykresach cenowych dolar moze osiagnac rownowage /
parity z euro a nawet osiagnac lekka przewage wartosci.

Dowcip dla gracza walutowego polega tu na wyjsciu z pozycji w Dolarze,
gdy osiagnie ono pozycje przed korekta i zajecie ponownie pozycji w
Dolarze na dole korekty. Cos co powinien zrobic p.Kleczkowski -- jesli
zainwestowal on w Dolarze zgodnie z moja rada.

Osobiscie sadze, ze parity bedzie osigniete w 2 polowie tego roku.

Dosc slaba korekta Dolara powinna miec miejsce za 2 tygodnie --
opieram te opinie na wykresie cenowym (Fala Elliotta) i na oscylatorze
podajacym mi zmiany ceny w czasie. Prognoy cenowe w korekcie moge
podac gdy dojdziemy do tego momentu.

A oto wiecej o sytuacji euro i zmiennosci nastrojow rynkowych ze stron
EWI:
By Nico Isaac
Thu, 03 Jun 2010 18:00:00 ET Email | Print | RSS | My Updates
Bookmark and share It!

Market Update: On June 4, the EUR/USD, the euro-dollar exchange rate
and the most acticely-traded forex pair, slipped below $1.20, a fresh
4-year low.
As the death rattle of the European Union's monetary unit dins on,
it's hard to believe the euro was so recently seen as the world's
leading currency. Not now. In six short months, the euro has gone from
currency Wunderkind - to - Washout, rubbing out its entire gains for
the past four years.
Now, the currency's fall from grace has landed on the front page of
the Money Section of the June 3 USA Today. The article points out that
in late 2009, "Europe's coin appeared finally to come into its own,"
culminating in a rumored plot among Middle Eastern oil barons to
replace the "embattled" U.S. dollar with a basket of currencies
including the euro.
Flash to today and the situation is completely reversed. As one source
from the piece remarks: "The euro's basically dead for the time being,
as a real reserve currency in competition with the dollar."
But then, in the article's final paragraph, the author takes a very
interesting turn. He offers a note of caution in taking the barrage of
euro-bashing to heart and writes: "Still, even as the investor
consensus ravages the euro, it's worth remembering that the same herd
instinct not long ago was pronouncing last rites for the dollar."
Worth remembering indeed!
(Euro Sentiment Reaches An Important Extreme: EWI's June 2 Short Term
Update presents a startling close-up of the euro's Daily Sentiment
Index over the past two years. What this says about the next near-term
move might surprise you. Click here to get started.)
While the "herd instinct" didn't see the euro's slide coming, EWI's
Short Term Update was well ahead of the currency's trend change, based
in large part on observing the said "herd instinct" via the Daily
Sentiment Index readings. On this, the following insights from the
November issues sets the stage: